Most disasters announce themselves. Floods surge. Earthquakes strike. Drought does neither. It creeps in through a thin snowpack, a dry spring, soil that holds less moisture than it should, rivers running low, reservoirs that never quite refill. By the time the damage shows — withered crops, stressed pastures, strained hydropower — the losses are already spreading across farms, energy systems and rural economies.
In Central Asia, this sneaking impact makes drought far more than a weather event. It is a slow-onset development risk that reaches into water allocation, irrigated agriculture, rangelands, hydropower, drinking-water security, ecosystems, rural livelihoods and the delicate business of cooperation between neighboring states.
The Rapid Drought Risk and Resilience Assessment (DRRA) initiative is helping the region see this risk clearly, and act before the next dry year. DRRA, led by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) with support from the World Bank and the Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP), draws together drought profiles — country-level assessments of drought risks, vulnerabilities and readiness gaps — alongside national drought dialogues across the region. DRRA produces these drought profiles for all five Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
The findings are striking. The five Central Asian countries have vastly different drought geographies, but the same obstacles: fragmented institutions, monitoring that does not trigger action, ageing irrigation infrastructure, advice that rarely reaches farmers and insufficient financing to manage drought.
Five countries, one shared challenge
Each country faces its own version of the problem.
In Kazakhstan, drought hits grain belts, irrigation zones and rangelands, and the task is to turn broad monitoring data into operational early warning systems and advice farmers can use to adjust irrigation, crop choices and pasture management.
In Kyrgyzstan, drought is bound up with mountain snow, glaciers, seasonal storage and hydropower, and will require monitoring linked to reservoir and basin decisions.
Tajikistan, a major water-forming area upstream on the Amu Darya, contains glaciers, forests and pastures that shape downstream water availability across the region.
In Turkmenistan, drought is largely hydrological, shaped by transboundary flows through the Amu Darya and Karakum Canal. These conditions can be managed through water accounting and desert-ecosystem measures such as restoring saxaul forests, which are unique ecosystems made up of hardy desert shrubs, and other salt-tolerant plants.
And in Uzbekistan, irrigation dependence, canal losses, salinization and the drying Aral Sea has left several regions, such as the Amu Darya lowlands, Karakalpakstan, Bukhara, Navoi and Surkhandarya, especially exposed. Even so, the country is building resilience with irrigation modernization, improved weather and water monitoring, and afforestation.
The common thread is unmistakable. These countries already have institutions, data, strategies and technical skills. What they lack is integration: information, decisions and financing that are connected in a way that turns drought knowledge into timely action.
The assessment did not stop at analysis. National drought dialogues and consultations held between March and May in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — with Tajikistan covered through a regional consultation — brought governments, researchers and development partners together to test the findings and agree on priorities. Experts discussed which measures are technically sound, institutionally realistic and achievable within a year or two. They also exposed a recurring need for clearer responsibilities, operational triggers and concrete 12-month roadmaps.
Why drought needs a regional answer
Drought does not stop at borders. Upstream snowpack, glacier melt and reservoir operations shape downstream irrigation. Dry years often hit the Amu Darya and Syr Darya systems at once, pressuring food, water, energy, public budgets and transboundary relations.
The next phase of the DRRA project should therefore focus on what no single country can build alone: harmonized indicators, comparable data protocols, shared basin scenarios, regional drought bulletins and a joint investment pipeline. A proposed regional drought-readiness platform would focus on these shared functions. It would not replace existing bodies such as the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia, the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, or the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basin water organizations. The DRRA’s next phase would instead connect these organizations around a common, practical agenda.
Dry years will always occur in Central Asia. However, the severe economic and social losses that often accompany them are not inevitable. With stronger institutions, innovative solutions and genuine regional cooperation, the region can shift from reaction to preparedness. The Drought Risk and Resilience Assessment has produced the necessary evidence. The task ahead is to turn it into coordinated, investable and measurable action — before the next dry year arrives.
Iskandar Abdullaev is a Senior Researcher at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI); Danila Uvarov is a drought and water-resources specialist from Kazakhstan; Anna Vladimirova is an independent consultant specializing in integrated water resources management, basin planning and drought management in Central Asia; Ludmila Kiktenko is the manager of the Environmental Management Program at CAREC; Zuura Mamadalieva is a water and climate-resilience specialist from Kyrgyzstan; Shavkat Pulatov is a water management specialist at the Research Institute of Water Engineering and Melioration in Tajikistan; Feruza Alikulova is a communications specialist at IWMI; Aziz Khaydarov is a water management specialist at IWMI; Natalia Limones is a geographer and water-resources specialist at the University of Seville.
