Tajikistan

A NEXUS Gains transboundary river basin brief shares examples of the Initiative’s work across five work packages in the Aral Sea Basin, covering Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of irrigation delivery services and agricultural extension services on crop choice in southern Tajikistan. This analysis is motivated by the government’s recent efforts to address the country’s severe malnutrition problem by supporting changes in irrigation service delivery and agronomy to increase diversity in agricultural production and consumption, in an environment where the cultivation of cotton had, until recently, been mandatory. Water management in Tajikistan has largely been transferred to the community through the creation of water users’ associations (WUAs), which were established between 2011 and 2013. While all WUAs received training to improve irrigation delivery services, some also received training in cultivating alternative crops and improving cultivation practices through agricultural extension services. Through specific empirical analysis conducted on a primary panel dataset of 1855 farms in southern Tajikistan, we identify the extent to which improvements in irrigation services, and agronomy training through extension services affect decisions pertaining to cultivated areas of cotton and wheat (the traditional crops) and the cultivated area and number of (newer) high-value crops. We also examine the effect of water delivery and agricultural extension services on crop diversity and cropping intensity (how often land is used in a calendar year). We find that improvements in irrigation delivery services affect cultivated areas of cotton and wheat. Cultivation of high value crops is significantly influenced by agricultural extension services. While cropping intensity depends on water delivery services, crop diversity depends on extension services. From a policy perspective, these results highlight the importance of agricultural programs for stimulating agricultural value added in landscapes historically characterized by limited crop choice and a collapse of the agricultural sector.

This paper examines whether longer training increases farm participation in community-managed water user associations, in a context where assignment to training duration was not randomized and none of these institutions existed before training began. We also examine whether participation is affected when farm managers migrate and leave farm operations to other workers, in a context where only managers have been directly trained, almost all managers are male, and females are increasingly operating farms. We collected microdata from 1855 farms in Southern Tajikistan, where farm managers in 40 subdistricts received longer training, while those in the other 40 received shorter training. These ‘treatment’ and ‘control’ subdistricts were selected by constructing propensity scores and matching without replacement to address observable selection effects that may affect assignment to training duration. Farms were then selected from a census using a stratified random sampling process. A difference-in-difference technique with right-hand-side covariates is employed, where both sets of data were collected after training was completed. This choice of econometric methods controls against farm-level selection effects, but introduces a potential bias due to measurement error. Longer training has a causal effect on increasing participation in WUAs. Results also demonstrate that when male workers not directly trained operate farms, participation is not affected; however, participation is negatively affected when female workers operate farms. These results provide evidence for designing irrigation management programs to target female workers directly, in order to strengthen institutions whose success depends on active farm participation.