Water, climate change and resilience

Climate-induced changes in water resource systems impact economies, food systems, cities, energy, health, ecosystems, and the security of communities. Such communities — including small holder farmers — affected by fragility, conflict, displacement, migration, frequent disasters and who are disconnected from water infrastructure, are among the most vulnerable to climate change. Shifting water availability and variable access require solutions and services that harness advances in technology, policies and finance and deliver them to places that historically had limited access to them. To support innovation and scaling for planning and investment, digital modeling is required on future scenarios of water availability and allocation. Of particular importance are advances in policies and technologies for disaster preparedness and response, climate-smart strategies for water storage, decarbonizing water systems, and the development of financial remediation schemes such as insurance. These efforts aim to integrate evidence-based approaches into planning and investments, ensuring that no community is left behind in the fight against climate impacts. 

IWMI’s approach to adaptation planning is based on thinking that accommodates growing uncertainties within and between sectors. This means knowledge development that brings technical solutions linked with political and economic incentives that are developed within social and environmental contexts. Through digital modeling of likely future conditions, solutions may be designed to help manage the trade-offs of when, where, who and how water is allocated.   

IWMI also advances the monitoring, forecasting, and risk and impact management of dynamically changing water shocks and stresses: floods, drought, extreme precipitation, and changing seasonality. The goal is, through IWMI’s knowledge and experience, to equip people and societies with the means to make the robust and flexible adjustments across systems, sectors and scales that are needed to withstand, recover from, and anticipate the impacts of climate change. Water management provides these vital levers and tools for resilience. Enhanced water management can thus be an enabler of adaptation, mitigation and more sustainable, water-conscious development across sectors and communities.  

Our research in action

IWMI’s work enhances knowledge of how water relates to social, economic and environmental drivers of fragility, conflict, displacement and migration, and promotes the use of this evidence to promote resilience in dynamic scenarios including conflict-affected settings and communities hosting refugees and internally displaced people. IWMI investigates the role of water in reducing fragility and building resilience in conflict-affected settings, including the impacts of climate-driven water challenges on migration, displacement, and livelihoods. It leads innovations in disaster risk reduction strategies tailored to fragile settings, ensuring sustainable water management during and after crises.  

To help governments and partners plan and operationalize climate change adaptation and/or mitigation strategies, IWMI integrates climate modeling, monitoring and scenario planning for the water, food and energy sectors. It develops climate resilient scaling pathways for water innovations with public and private sector actors in development and humanitarian contexts. By using river basin modeling and field assessment tools, IWMI analyzes the hydrological impacts of adaptation and mitigation solutions such as nature-based solutions or renewable energy technologies. It further develops and deploys flood and drought monitoring and forecasting technologies for improving disaster preparedness, anticipatory action and humanitarian response. 

IWMI’s work empowers effective water governance and policy developments that promote inclusive climate change adaptation and mitigation and integrated humanitarian-development-peace nexus strategies. Through evidence generation and capacity development, IWMI seeks to support key stakeholders’ understanding of global policies and processes on water as well as the incorporation of water into national and regional climate strategies. It enhances knowledge on barriers and opportunities to promote greater mobilization of finance, including private finance for water security. 

Latest publications on this topic

Unpacking innovation demands for climate-resilient mixed farming systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: a case of northern Ghana.
Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development, 2025
More... View | Fulltext (1.07 MB)

According to the United Nations (n.d.), climate change is the long-term shift in temperatures and weather patterns due to natural changes, such as the sun’s activity and significant volcanic eruptions, or human activities, such as burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas. The effects of and challenges caused by climate change on farmers’ ability to manage mixed farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa are well documented in the literature. However, the synergies among mixed farming systems’ components and farmers’ innovation demands and responses to climate change impacts remain fragmented. Using a case of mixed crop-livestock-tree (MCLT) systems in northern Ghana, this paper examined farmers’ responses, their innovation needs, and how these innovations can be catalyzed to enable more farmers to adopt similar climate change adaptations. Our findings show that climate change impacts mixed farming systems in several domains, with these impacts being more visible in some domains. Significant productivity declines are observed in crops, livestock, and the whole mixed farming system. Productivity declines lead to decreased incomes, food availability, and household food security. Female farmers’ access to production factors, resource management, and market participation is reduced. Farmers make technical, managerial, and business changes in response to climate change impacts. Such changes are dominated by technical changes, including using highyielding, disease-resistant, and early-maturing crop varieties, crop and animal pest and disease management, agricultural water and land management, and wind and bush fire control. Interconnections between the MCLT system components include cross-component investments, additional income generation, animal feeding and healthcare improvement, nutrition exchanges, and family nutrition improvement. These interconnections generate income and cash flow and support food and nutrition security, enabling farmers’ adaptation. Climate-resilient innovation bundles to enable farmers’ adaptation include good agricultural practices, circular farming techniques, irrigation packages, information services, and value-chain linkages. Scaling climate-resilient innovations in northern Ghana and other sub-Saharan African contexts require multiple pathways, including innovation platforms, innovation bundling, multi-actor partnerships, inclusive finance, and multistakeholder dialogues to support farmers’ adaptation to climate change.

Farmers / Livestock / Climate change adaptation / Innovation scaling / Climate resilience / Climate change impacts / Farming systems / Mixed farming
Record No:H053817

---

Implications of changes in water stress and precipitation extremes for cocoa production in Cte D’Ivoire and Ghana.
International Journal of Climatology, 2025
More... View

Climate change induces high variability in drought patterns and extreme precipitation indices in rainfed cocoa farming, impacting cocoa production. This study evaluated water stress, meteorological and agricultural drought conditions, and critical extreme precipitation indices in the worldapos;s two largest cocoa-producing nations from 1981 to 2022. The results revealed a significant reduction in total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), in the last three decades, with the greatest decline in the 1991–2000 and 2011–2022 periods. Ghana experienced the most significant reduction up to 15% (200mm/year) in the last decade, attributed to a substantial decrease in wet days number (RR1) up to 25days per year, a reduction in maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) up to 6days per year, and an increase in maximum consecutive dry days (CDD) up to 15days per year. Moreover, there was a notable decline in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with reductions of up to 4mm/day in certain areas, contributing to increased drought frequency, severity, and duration. In the most recent decade (2011–2022), particularly during the extremely dry years of 2013 and 2015, cocoa-growing regions in Ghana (GHA) and eastern Cte dapos;Ivoire (CIV) experienced prolonged agricultural drought expressed by soil moisture deficit, typically extending from May to September. Additionally, large portions of central and eastern Ghana, as well as northeastern Cte dapos;Ivoire experienced sustained water stress, with over three consecutive months of total monthly precipitation falling below 100mm, negatively impacting cocoa productivity. The decrease in the yield in the range of 2.5% to 37% was noted in the dry years and the following years, varying according to the country depending on the severity of the drought. Sensitivity analysis highlights cocoa yieldapos;s responsiveness to drought and water stress, particularly in specific years when water stress occurred, such as 1984,1985, 1989, 1995, 1999, 2000, and 2008. Considering the observed trends in precipitation patterns and their impact on cocoa production, it is crucial to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of future precipitation patterns due to climate change. To address this challenge effectively, our study underscores the importance of identifying and closely monitoring regions currently facing water stress, as determined by precipitation and drought indicators. Over the analysed period (1981–2022), we have noted shifts in the distribution of water-stressed areas, highlighting the dynamic nature of this issue. Consequently, we advocate for a targeted approach to implement cocoa supplementary irrigation in consistently water-stressed regions.

Strategies / Yields / Soil water content / Evapotranspiration / Climate variability / Drought / Extreme weather events / Precipitation / Cocoa / Water stress / Climate change adaptation
Record No:H053744

---

Al Murunah Webinar on High-Resolution Climate Change Downscaling for Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions in the MENA Region.
2025
More... View | Fulltext (883 KB)

The Al Murunah project seeks to improve water security in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPT) by integrating nature-based solutions for water and agricultural water management strategies (Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions, RNBWS). The “High-Resolution Climate Change Downscaling for Resilient Nature-Based Water Solutions in the MENA Region” webinar showcased the Al Murunah Project’s groundbreaking findings and insights that can shape the future of sustainable water management in the region. The webinar’s aims were to: 1) disseminate technical findings from high-resolution, bias-corrected climate change downscaling activities (full report and data available here) and 2) describe how they are being used in the Al Murunah pilot projects and can be used more widely. It focused on how data-driven insights are informing the planning and implementation of resilient nature-based water solutions (RNBWS) demonstration projects in the four pilot basins of Abu Al-Matamir (Egypt), Wadi Seer (Jordan), Ras Baalbeck Basin (Lebanon) and Wadi Al-Faria’a (OPT). The webinar highlighted the need for localized, high-resolution (temporal and spatial) climate data to address the MENA region’s unique challenges. The study data is instrumental not only for sustainable water management but also for driving broader climate resilience initiatives rooted in community engagement. A key highlight of the webinar was the presentation of the Bias-Corrected Statistical Disaggregation (BCSD) method, a cutting-edge approach for generating precise and more accurate climate projections. The model outputs explain the rising intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves and droughts, underscore the need for proactive planning and interventions. The importance of partnerships in turning these findings into actionable solutions was also underscored. Local communities play a central role in the project, with their insights ensuring that interventions are context-specific and sustainable, while gender inclusion and diverse stakeholder consultations are critical for equitable outcomes, particularly in addressing the needs of vulnerable populations.

Climatic data / Climate resilience / Water security / Water management / Nature-based solutions / Climate change
Record No:H053735

---

Cereal yield and water requirements in response to irrigation and soil fertility management in a changing climate: a case of Tulsipur, western Nepal.
Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2025
More... View | Fulltext (1.24 MB)

Climate change is projected to notably impact water requirements and crop yield; therefore, it is imperative to quantify climate risk and devise climate-resilient field management practices. This study applied the AquaCrop model to Tulsipur, a sub-metropolitan city located in Western Nepal. The model was calibrated and validated on a field scale, and various scenarios were analysed for baseline (2010–2020) and future (2021–2100) periods to formulate workable management strategies for irrigation and fertilizer applications. Results showed that a deficit irrigation strategy could lead to 81% fewer requirements for irrigation in rice and 24% in wheat at the cost of a minimal (~1%) reduction in yield. Water requirement is projected to decrease and crop yield to increase for both crops for all future scenarios, except wheat water requirement, where water requirement is projected to increase by up to 13% in the future. Rainfed irrigation leads to extremely high variance in crop yields. Deficit irrigation under the nationally recommended fertilizer dose is recommended as a better option to develop climate resiliency in cereal yield in the study area.

Climate prediction / Climate models / Climate resilience / Climate change / Soil fertility / Irrigation management / Water requirements / Crop yield
Record No:H053701

---