In a significant stride for climate adaptation, the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), in partnership with Sri Lanka’s Department of Meteorology, has developed a set of dynamically downscaled climate projections for the country. These high-resolution projections mark a turning point in the country’s fight against climate change by offering precise, localized data to guide adaptation strategies.
Dynamic downscaling, the process behind these projections, refines coarse global climate model (GCM) outputs with resolutions of 100–200 kilometers (km) to a higher resolution grid — in this case 15 km. Using physics-based models, the climate projections capture Sri Lanka’s unique terrain and climate patterns, distinguishing coastal lowlands from inland highlands. Unlike coarse-resolution GCMs, which often blur Sri Lanka into a few grid points, these projections — covering the time span between 2015 and 2100 at 3-hour intervals — provide granular data on climate parameters like precipitation, temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation under moderate and high-emission scenarios. This dataset will be a robust tool for planners and policymakers to prepare for potential future climate impacts.
Initial analyses of the projections suggest that districts like Kurunegala in the North Western Province may face more frequent and longer dry spells and high-intensity short duration rainfall, risking extreme weather events. Jaffna, located on the northern tip of the country, may face longer and more severe droughts. Kandy in central Sri Lanka may see a decline in the temperature difference between daytime and nighttime.
These shifts threaten agricultural activities — coconut farming in Kurunegala, and highland vegetables and spices in Kandy — demanding adaptive measures.
“For a nation at the frontline of climate change, these projections are not just data — they form the backbone of data-driven resilient policymaking,” explained Nishadi Eriyagama, Deputy Country Manager for Sri Lanka at IWMI.
The climate projections are a key output of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Readiness Support project, funded by the Green Climate Fund and implemented by the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) in close collaboration with the Ministry of Environment’s Climate Change Secretariat.
“These projections empower Sri Lanka to tailor adaptation strategies, from strengthening water management to safeguarding ecosystems and livelihoods. By informing Sri Lanka’s updated National Adaptation Plan and the first set of Provincial Adaptation Plans, they strengthen the case for directing climate finance towards critical adaptation needs,” said Sonali Senaratna Sellamuttu, Country Representative for Sri Lanka at the Global Green Growth Institute.
