Lessons from flood anticipatory action in Zambia

By Giriraj Amarnath and Mirriam Makungwe

Flood disasters have long plagued Zambia, leaving communities vulnerable to repeated displacements, crop destruction, waterborne diseases, and infrastructure damage. Since 2000, more than 20 flood events have affected approximately 3.9 million people across the country. The devastating floods of 2023, which impacted nine provinces and displaced over 25,768 households (154,608 people), serve as a stark reminder of the urgent need for effective solutions. The hardest-hit districts—Namwala, Monze, and Mazabuka—saw 1,394 families displaced, many of whom sought refuge in 20 camps.

This sobering history highlights the need for a paradigm shift from reactive disaster responses to anticipatory action. Traditional disaster response systems often delay critical interventions, exacerbating the impacts on affected populations. With climate change intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, proactive disaster preparedness approaches focusing on prevention, mitigation, resilience building, and sustainable development have become imperative. These approaches emphasize preparedness, early action, and collaboration—elements that are more critical now than ever.

In this context, Monze District, a hotspot for recurrent flooding, became the focus of a transformative flood anticipatory action simulation. This initiative, integrating the cutting-edge AWARE Platform developed by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) with the support of CGIAR Initiative on Climate Resilience, marks a vital step forward in improving flood preparedness, response, and resilience for vulnerable communities.

The role of anticipatory action and the CGIAR AWARE Platform

Anticipatory action is a game-changer, combining early warning systems with early action and finance to mitigate disaster impacts. The AWARE Platform is central to this approach, providing timely, actionable data to forecast risks and coordinate interventions. By facilitating collaboration among stakeholders—including local authorities, humanitarian organizations, and community members—the platform ensures that early warnings translate into tangible, life-saving actions on the ground.

A community-centered approach

The Monze flood simulation exemplifies the three-phased anticipatory action framework: preparedness, readiness, and active response. Key activities included:

1. Participatory Mapping of Early Action Plans: Community members actively identified risks, vulnerabilities, and resources in their areas. This participatory process ensured that interventions were tailored to local realities and needs. For this simulation, three communities—Malundu, Tandabale, and Mutiti—were selected, with each community identifying 10 vulnerable members (30 in total) for targeted support.
2. Delivery of Early Action Resources: To bolster community resilience, essential resources were pre-positioned and distributed during the simulation. Items included 30 mosquito nets, 10-liter water containers, 10 units of chlorine for water purification, 30 sleeping mats, and 30 bars of soap to promote hygiene and prevent the spread of waterborne diseases.

These resources were delivered to three villages in Monze District, ensuring that vulnerable populations could quickly access critical supplies during flood events.

The simulation was a collaborative effort led by IWMI in partnership with the Red Cross Society of Zambia, People in Need India, and local stakeholders, including the Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit, the Monze Council and Community Development Office, and the Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD).

Scaling anticipatory action for a resilient future

The 2023 flood disaster serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for scalable and sustainable solutions. The flood anticipatory action simulation in Monze District demonstrated the transformative potential of aligning early warning systems with proactive interventions to save lives and livelihoods. Building on this momentum and the recent recommendations from the IASC Standing Committee, the way forward requires strategic commitments and investments from governments, donors, and humanitarian actors.

1. Governments can take the lead in creating forecast-based action systems supported by multi-year operational plans for emergency preparedness and response. These plans should integrate anticipatory action into national disaster management systems.
2. Investment in forecasting alone is not enough. Governments must ensure early warning information reaches communities in time to act. This includes addressing barriers to accessing information—particularly for women, girls, refugees, and marginalized groups—and targeting ‘last mile’ communities where the impacts are often most severe.
3. Policy frameworks should embed anticipatory action within national disaster response systems, bridging the gap between forecasting and action to protect vulnerable populations ahead of predictable shocks.

Call to action for donors and humanitarian actors

1. Investments in early warning systems must be matched by complementary, flexible, and predictable financing. Donors should prioritize contributions to humanitarian pooled funds and unearmarked funding, enabling swift, effective action before disasters strike.
2. Humanitarian actors can integrate risk data into planning and coordination to ensure efficient resource allocation. Ensuring data is sex- and age-disaggregated enhances targeted support for vulnerable groups, fostering equity in disaster response.
3. Humanitarian agencies should partner with local organizations, particularly women-led groups, which are often the first responders during crises. Collaborating with development and climate institutions ensures that long-term risk is analyzed using robust climate science, seasonal outlooks, and hydrometeorological services.

Scaling anticipatory action requires holistic investment in systems that not only predict risks but also empower communities to act. This means going beyond infrastructure to ensure inclusive access to resources, knowledge, and tools for all. Governments, donors, and humanitarian actors must work together to mainstream anticipatory action as a core element of climate adaptation strategies.

The path forward

As climate risks escalate, the lessons from Monze provide a clear roadmap. By embedding anticipatory action in national systems, ensuring accessible early warning information, and fostering collaboration among all stakeholders, we can create a resilient future where vulnerable populations are better protected from predictable shocks.

Preparedness is not just a strategy—it is an investment in hope, equity, and resilience for the communities that need it most.